The Atlantic hurricane season is expected to 2021 is more active than normal, according to Colorado State University
Photo: CHANDAN KHANNA / AFP / Getty Images
The Atlantic Hurricane Season of 2020 will be more active than usual, based on a published forecast Thursday by the Colorado State University (CSU) Tropical Meteorology Project.
The group led by the Dr. Phil Klotzbach predicted 17 storms Named , with eight hurricanes and four major hurricanes . A major hurricane is Category 3 or higher (winds greater than 115 mph) on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale.
Atlantic seasonal # hurricane forecast from @ ColoradoStateU calls for above-average season: 16 named storms, 8 hurricanes & 4 major hurricanes. Reasons for above-average forecast include predicted lack of # ElNino and warmer than normal subtropical Atlantic https://t.co/yMtgWLKlCE pic.twitter.com/vbi1oE9FiG
– Philip Klotzbach (@philklotzbach) April 8, 2021
This forecast is above average of 30 years (1991 to 2020) from 15 named storms, seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes.
The upcoming hurricane season in the Atlantic will have an activity “higher than annual average ”, due to the absence of the El Niño meteorological phenomenon.
The report indicates that there is an above-average probability that “major hurricanes will impact the continental United States and the Caribbean coast.”
The forecast, presented in the framework of the National Conference on Tropical Climate, is based on more of four decades historical data of the hurricanes compiled by CSU and in the observation of two key elements for the formation of these hurricanes: water temperatures in the Atlantic and fluctuations in the Pacific known as El Niño and La Niña.
Specifically, the report says that there is 69% chance that a hurricane will affect somewhere off the east coast of United States , when the average of the last century was 58%.
Forecast includes 115 stormy days and 35 Hurricane days, same as in 2020, a record year in this area, but above the historical average of 59 Y 24, respectively.
Also, an estimated 44% chance of a hurricane reaching the Gulf of Mexico and a 58% chance of a hurricane in Caribbean , both numbers significantly above historical averages.
If the forecast for 2021 is fulfilled as today was anticipated by CSU, this season there will be a 40% above average, arising from data taken from 1981 .
The report of the experts from the University of Colorado largely coincide with those presented this week by the meteorological services company Accuweather, which predicts that in 2021 will be formed in the Atlantic from 16 to 20 named storms, of the that between seven and ten will become hurricanes , of which between three and five will be of a higher category.
In the season of 2020, the most active in history, there was 30 named storms, thirteen of them hurricanes and six of these major.
It was also a record because the United States suffered twelve direct attacks, three more what in 1916, which had the earlier mark, according to Accuweather.
With information from EFE Agency and weather.com
