One of the most unstable areas in the world trembles again before the advance of Russian tanks.
Since the end of March, satellite images and videos leaked on social networks began to show an extensive deployment of heavy artillery and Russian troops to the Dombás region, in the border area in eastern Ukraine, where it began in 2014 a conflict that has not ended yet.
According to the investigation group Conflict Intelligence Team , the Kremlin has not only transported military forces to the area, but has also set up numerous camps on the border.
“It is probably the largest military mobilization that Ukraine has seen in its vicinity since 2015 ”, Anders Åslund, researcher at the Atlantic Council, tells BBC Mundo, a think tank based in Washington.
“Although the Kremlin hasHis army has moved many times in that area during the last seven years, this time the concentration of forces seems particularly worrying. ”
As a result, both the Ukrainian army and the European Command of The United States has been put on high alert due to the fear of new military confrontations.
Last week, the president of the United States, Joe Biden, called for the first time since he took office with his peer Ukrainian, Volodimir Zelensky, while the State Department criticized the deployment of Russian troops.
The Ukrainian president, who has positioned himself as a staunch critic of Russia in Eastern Europe, he also spoke with the leaders of the United Kingdom and Canada, while France and Germany last week held a dialogue with Putin on the subject.
On Tuesday, the head of NATO, Jens Stoltenberg, tweeted that he had also called Zelensky “to express serious concern about the Russian military activities in and around Ukraine ” and said that the organization“ strongly supports the sovereignty and territorial integrity of Ukraine. ”
Experts on the conflict and correspondents of the BBC’s Russian and Ukrainian service assure the BBC A world that is still not clear what may be behind the military deployment.
For some, the possibility of a new escalation in the conflict is not ruled out, while others believe that Putin is moving his tanks towards Ukraine as a test of strength towards the new government of the United States and towards the European Union.
“Moscow always plays its cards in different places at the same time. We do not know what Putin wants this time, but given the level of mobilization, he is certainly looking for something, ”says Åslund.
What is happening? 
The war of 2014, which led to the Russian annexation of Crimea, has so far left more than 14. 000 dead, according to official figures.
The sides signed an armistice eight months ago, which led to a notable de-escalation of the conflict.
However, Last month the Kremlin carried out military exercises in Crimea and since the end of the month, various reports began to show the deployment of heavy military equipment to the Dombás region, which were later identified as belonging to the Russian army.
Ukraine’s Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba told the BBC that his government had identified “an accumulation of Russian military” on the northern border between his country and Russia, along the eastern border and “also in illegally occupied Crimea.”
Since then, the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) has recorded hundreds of ceasefire violations , including 493 only the 26 of March.
Many of the Russian troops have been transported from as distant regions as Volgograd, from where the 49 2nd Airborne Brigade, one of the forces that Moscow used in the conflicts in Afghanistan and Chechnya.
“From various sources we know of at least 4. 000 Russian military in three border regions with Ukraine ”, Zhanna Bezpiatchuk, BBC correspondent in Kiev, tells BBC Mundo.
“They could constitute between five and six groups of tactical battalions, according to military experts. The Ukrainian Army declared that more than 20 of these groups may be stationed near the borders of Ukraine, ”he says. .
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Last Thursday, at least four Ukrainian soldiers died in an altercation with the Russian military, while another two died earlier this week.
“The situation in Dombás at this time It is worrying, but at the same time very dark, because access to the media there is very limited ”, explains to BBC Mundo Olga Ivshina, who covered the war of 1268 for the BBC’s Russian service.
“So, we don’t know for sure what’s going on, beyond the videos and intelligence reports. But it is certainly a more serious situation than previous military movements, ”he says.
What does Russia say?
The Russian government has not denied, as has happened on other occasions, the military deployment.
Kremlin spokesman Dmitri Peskov assured in a press conference that Russia has the right to move “its armed forces within its territory at its discretion.”
However, he alleged that “ should not worry anyone and does not pose a threat to anyone “.
He questioned, however, what he considered as” border provocations “by Ukraine and criticized that country’s desire to join NATO.
“We doubt very much that this will help Ukraine solve its internal problem,” he said.
From According to Ivshina, Russian media, especially television (the main medium for the adult population) and Telegram channels (popular with the youngest) have been used in recent times to talk about the need to protect the Russian-speaking population of Dombás.
Åslund agrees that one of the elements that differentiates these military movements is that they have been accompanied by a campaign of communications and publications in which Moscow accuses Ukraine and the United States of preparing an “attack” that could affect Russian interests.
“The accusations are totally false, but they serve to create a state of opinion that serves to justify a potential attack,” he says.
Why now?
According to Åslund, one of the questions that leaves the military deployment is why it happens at this time.
The expert recalls that one of the possible causes is that the Biden government has not yet finished conforming, given that there are still nominations that have not have passed the Senate, which makes it difficult to negotiate with the United States in the event that the Kremlin makes a “destabilizing move.”
He points out that another point To keep in mind is that next October Russia will hold elections to the Duma (Parliament), in which Putin’s party runs the risk of losing the majority given the fall in the popularity of the president.
“On previous occasions, Putin has used the war to reinforce his popularity when it has gone down, as happened in Chechnya or Georgia,” he recalls.
Which Are other possible causes?
Bezpiatchuk points out that another element that has been considered is the possibility that Russia is using the military move in this area to distracting attention from another potential target.
“This is probably the first time in recent years that too many military analysts and well-informed sources admit that Russia could use seasonal drills and relocations as cover for other plans.” , he points out.
“The scale, intensity and secret of these movements now make them think that it could be this,” he adds.
The correspondent recalls that that was what happened in 1268, when the Kremlin withdrew its forces to the south of the country and then sent them to the Crimea to occupy the pen insula.
“But the official explanation for the massive relocation of the army was the need to provide security for the Sochi Olympics. Many in Ukraine now remember this story, ”he says.
However, Bezpiatchuk and Åslund agree that Putin would risk numerous sanctions and greater international isolation if he dares a new attack.
That is why, they say, is that many analysts and military experts in Ukraine and abroad think that in the end it will only be a test of strength to measure the response of Biden and Europe.
“The idea of such movements is to attract attention and increase their own visibility. Obviously, it has already succeeded, ”says Bezpiatchuk.
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