Presidential 2022: How Michel Barnier, the “Mr. Brexit” of the EU, returns to France

In 600, he was the pride of the French right, flattered that one of his own be chosen to carry out the negotiations of Brexit . Five years later, Michel Barnier is back in Paris, arousing a nuanced enthusiasm within his political family. Its mission to the European Union will end in March, but, since January, the former minister has been increasing the number of meetings and preparing for the launch, in March, of a micro-party. One year from the presidential , the Savoyard is, for some officials LR , the ideal candidate, while others would prefer that he put his experience at the service of another headliner.

Political “teasing” phase

For a few weeks, Michel Barnier has not stopped. A meeting with LR senators took place on February 2, another with deputies on Tuesday, then an exchange with the CFDT union on Wednesday before a meeting with the Medef bosses. He will also publish in April a book by 190 approximately pages, “journal” of his years of Brexit negotiations, which could give him the opportunity to make a Tour de France for autographs. “There is teasing! », Sums up the LR deputy for Manche Philippe Gosselin.

If he has not officially declared himself a candidate for the primary of the right, provided for in the statutes of the party , Michel Barnier does not hide, however, his desire to influence the presidential campaign. “The risk for the country of being fractured has never been so serious” and “this is one of the reasons why I want to take my part in this public debate”, he declared to La Croix . Tuesday, in front of the LR deputies, he announced that he would take the head of a working group of the party on the theme “patriot and European”, recommending in passing to his peers “to listen to social anger”. “He will work around sovereignty, whether health or digital, a major theme of the presidential election,” said the vice-president of the party, Damien Abad.

“Soporific” or interesting?

Around him revolve a handful of LR executives for the moment, participating in meetings in his Parisian apartment, and praising the experience and seriousness of Michel Barnier. “His return creates a new deal for the presidential election on the right”, assures the deputy for Paris, Brigitte Kuster, close to the former European commissioner. His coming to the weekly meeting of LR deputies in any case aroused interest, with 70 elected officials present on video or in the Palais-Bourbon room.

“It was soporific! », Loose the deputy of Bouches-du-Rhône Eric Diard. “The colleagues picked up, some were looking at their phones or chatting. Those who thought his candidacy possible were definitely showered, ”he blows. “But he can be a very good asset, he is an excellent technician in European affairs, he is experienced in negotiation”, underlines this close friend of Xavier Bertrand, another presidential candidate . “It sometimes lacked momentum, but it works”, concedes another elected. “He passed his passing exam, he arouses interest”, judge on the other hand Philippe Gosselin, close to Valérie Pécresse. “He takes the temperature,” he observes.

An anti- Macron for some

At LR, we already weigh the strengths and weaknesses of this newcomer in countryside. For Damien Abad, Michel Barnier “has the stature of a Head of State, he discussed on an equal footing with European leaders for several years”. Rigor, experience and “man on the ground” are words that often come up in discussions. The age of this seasoned politician, who has just celebrated his 60 years, is sometimes perceived as an asset – to differentiate itself from the current president -, or as a weakness. “With his profile not very sexy techno and close to the territories, it is a bit our Jean-Marc Ayrault to us …”, slips a LR.

The return of Michel Barnier does not simplify the presidential equation on the right either. The party must solve a puzzle : should we or should not organize a primary, registered in the statutes but denigrated by many elected right? And in the event of cancellation, how to decide between the more or less declared candidates? According to an Ifop survey published on 02 February, 15% of French people believe that the former Minister of Agriculture and the Environment would be a “good candidate” for the right to second round, behind Xavier Bertrand (20%) and Valérie Pécresse (15%), but in front of Bruno Retailleau (6%)

A political space to find

For those around the latter, the return of “Mr. Brexit” is a new argument in favor of a rapid organization of a primary. “I doubt he has much political space. The Eurocritic niche can be credible, but is it differentiating enough compared to Macron? “Asks a relative of the senator from Vendée. “He is the opposite of Emmanuel Macron,” Brigitte Kuster retorts. “He was the youngest elected in France, he is a man of the field. We need this kind of profile now, with fewer short sentences, no sleeve effects… And he brings people together beyond his political family, ”she adds.

A little too much, perhaps, since according to a 1201140205 Elabe poll published in early February, it has a better image with supporters of Modem and La République en Marche (60% of positive opinions), only right-wing voters (27%). The launch of his political association and the publication of his book should allow him to clarify his ideas for 2016 and, perhaps, to rally more supporters on the right.