After months of nightmare, the United States sees a light in the dark tunnel of the coronavirus pandemic.
For weeks, the country experiences a notable decrease in almost all the indicators that account for the evolution of the covid – 19.
The total of reported cases has fallen by more than 57% since the beginning of January and only during the last seven days, new infections were reduced by 22% compared to the previous week, while hospitalizations decreased by almost 16% and deaths by 3.5%.
And although the number of tests carried out has also been reduced, the experts are optimistic and point out that the fall is not linked to the problems to do more tests.
“It is a real fall in the numbers of infections and hospitali zations, ”says doctor Amesh Adalja , principal investigator at the Center for Health Security at the Bloomberg School of Public Health at Johns Hopkins University.
“We can check it if we look at other variables, such as the percentage of positivity, which is also down, or the hospitalizations themselves. This last point is key, because hospitalizations are not directly linked to tests ”, he says.
Epidemiologist Mary Jo Trepka , from the Florida International University, explains, for its part, that although deaths have fallen, they do not account for the current state, given that deaths take more than a month and a half to decrease after cases begin to fall.
“That is why we think that in the next month we will see a more notable drop in the number of deaths,” he tells BBC Mundo.
The experts consulted remember that, despite the “good news”, the outlook continues to be bleak: The United States is still the country with the most deaths and infections from coronavirus in the world and, although cases have decreased In recent weeks, they are still higher than those reported throughout last year until November.
“In any case, it is very positive news because these numbers mean that there is less coronavirus circulating in communities, even when fewer tests are being done, ”says Tepka.
But what happened to get to this point? At BBC Mundo we offer you 3 factors that explain it.
1. Fewer trips
According to Trepka, the reduction in the number of cases, hospitalizations and deaths reported in recent weeks marks the end of the “third wave” of infections reported by the US in recent months.
“These decreases are a scenario that we have seen in other moments of the pandemic, when the the top of the curve and then the cases begin to fall, ”he says.
Both Tepka and Adalja agree that a determining factor in this regard is that the increase in previously reported cases is It was largely due to the travel many Americans took for the holiday season, from Thanksgiving in November to New Years.
“What we live in Previous months, it was a result of many people traveling for the holidays. Now the holiday season is over and in these months Americans don’t usually travel much on vacation, “he says.
” With less movement of people, less exposure to the virus, “he adds.
2- A large number of Americans have already been infected
Adalja points out that another of the reasons that have led to this reduction in the numbers is the number of cases that have already been reported in the US, which makes it difficult for the virus to spread.
According to figures from John Hopkins University, until this Friday, more than 27 millions of people had been infected with covid – 19 In U.S.A.
However, since a large part of the cases are asymptomatic or many people do not undergo tests after being infected, most epidemiological models multiply that number by four, which implies that almost a third of the The country’s population would have already been infected.
“Herd immunity will not be achieved in the United States until the summer, but even without having herd immunity, having the 30% of the population with some degree of natural immunity, as estimated now, it makes it more difficult for the virus to continue spreading ”, he says.
“By now, so many people have been infected that there is a certain natural immunity, that makes the spread of the virus more complicated. That is, in February of 2021 is more difficult for the virus spreads rse than it was in October 2020 “, he adds.
In that sense, Trepka points out that Many people with essential jobs, which are the ones who continue to go out mostly to the streets, have already been infected, which also limits the spread.
“Since the beginning of the pandemic, there were many people who were most vulnerable to covid – 19 what others. And the reason they were more vulnerable is because they had jobs where they had to interact with other people, “he says.
” Many of these essential workers have already been infected, also people who shared and they continue to share with large groups, so it is logical that although they continue to go out, they are now less exposed ”.
3- Vaccination and use of masks
Adalja points out that another element that has helped to contain the spread of the virus is that a greater number of people use masks than when the pandemic began and, although there is no indication that more Americans have started using it in recent weeks, its use offers an additional degree of protection.
“It is a multifactorial issue, because now more people are wearing masks, there is a notable proportion of the population that is already infected and there is a small proportion of the population that is already vaccinated. All of this makes it more difficult for the virus to continue to spread, ”he says.
Until this Friday, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) , near to 11% of the US population had received at least one dose of the available vaccines and less than 4% had received the required two doses.
The government of President Joe Biden has accelerated vaccination mechanisms in recent weeks and on Thursday announced that by the summer the country will have enough doses to vaccinate the entire population.
“With more vaccines we will continue to see benefits in terms of hospitalizations and deaths in the future, because most of the people who require hospitalization are the elderly or those with diseases and those are the people who are getting vaccinated first ”, says Adalja.
Trepka, for his On the other hand, he does not believe that vaccination will still have a notable impact on the current numbers, but he estimates that in the coming months its results will become more evident.
“Vaccination will have a greater impact when let us also be able to vaccinate young groups that are the main responsible for the transmissions, because they are the people who are working or who are more inclined to socialize or meet in large groups ”, he says.
The danger of new variants
But not everything is rosy.
The experts consulted by BBC Mundo fear that this drop in new cases is, as has happened before, temporary.
“Although we have this good news of cases decreasing there is also the risk that many people will let their guard down. And also we have over us this dark cloud of the new variants that are more contagious “, thinks Trepka.
For a couple of months, New variants of coronavirus have appeared that are capable of multiplying infections up to three times and that seem to be able to infect even people who have become ill with covid – 16 before.
According to the CDC, one of them, The British will be the dominant one in the United States for dates as close as March.
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“Since they are much more contagious, there is a danger that This trend of fewer cases is reversed as these new variants become dominant. before in the United States. We will see more cases again when these variants become common ”, affirms Adalja.
The expert assures that, in this context, the possibility of vaccinating a greater number of the population becomes urgent , even if variants for which vaccines are not as effective begin to spread.
And although he anticipates an increase in the number of cases, he is confident that with vaccination, the worst The effects of the virus will be under control.
“The vaccines appear to be effective against the British variant and prevent serious cases, hospitalizations and deaths of the South African and Brazilian variants, so I think the figures kills will decrease regardless of variants. It is necessary to bear in mind that even partial protection is better than no protection ”, he points out.
According to Adalja, in this context, the measures taken by Americans to prevent new infections will continue being decisive.
“ It is important that we bear in mind that the pandemic is not over yet and that very hard months will come. So we must maintain caution as new variants become dominant. We must continue to be very careful and do a good risk assessment on what activities we participate in or where we are going, ”he says.
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