Many world leaders, and especially Washington’s allies, will have viewed this week’s events on Capitol Hill with amazement and alarm.
NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg was one of the first to respond, tweeting: “Shocking scenes in Washington DC. The result of this democratic election must be respected. ”
Who could have imagined such a comment, coming from the highest official of the alliance, addressed to its main member state?
It’s the kind of thing you would expect Stoltenberg to say to Belarus or Venezuela.
The episode says a lot about Washington’s position in the world after four years of the presidency of Donald Trump.
The United States has lost both influence and soft power.
It has withdrawn from the control agreements arms, the Iran nuclear deal and a major climate agreement.
It has tried to reduce its military confrontations in the foreigner offering few diplomatic alternatives.
Countries like Israel, Saudi Arabia and Turkey have had, to some extent, to guarantee their own security, conscious that the attention span of the President of the United States two is limited.
Indeed, Donald Trump often seems to regard authoritarian leaders as more cordial hosts than the heads of government of many of his Democratic allies.
The forces of attraction that made the country a model for would-be Democrats everywhere are clouded, its fissures visible to all.
Today, as analyst Ian Bremmer points out: “ Politically, the United States is by far the most dysfunctional and divided country of all the advanced industrial democracies in the world. ”
This is important because, in recent years, the international system has clearly suffered for Trump’s decision to pursue an America First policy.
Authoritarianism “on the rise” Authoritarians are on the rise. Both China and Russia feel that their influence has been strengthened during the Trump years.
The institutions of the liberal order, such as NATO, the UN and many of their agencies face different degrees of crisis.
Trump supporters stormed the Capitol after a march in support of the outgoing president. Cyberattacks and so-called gray zone operations – which are close below the threshold of war – are becoming commonplace.
The world faces acute crises like the pandemic and climate change and, under Trump’s supervision, the United States has simply not done its duty.
Let’s be clear here. This is not a call for US dominance over the world.
Often, a far-reaching US foreign policy has been as much part of the problem as it is part of any solution.
But the security and defense policy of the United States is not in a good place.
The whole fabric of the arms control agreements inherited from the years of the Cold War, from the INF treaty (Treaty on Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces) to the Open Skies Treaty, is crumbling.
Indeed, a last attempt to renew the latest agreement limiting US and Russian arsenals On strategic nuclear weapons, the New Start Treaty (Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty) will be one of the first items on President-elect Joe Biden’s agenda.
Arms control is gaining in importance as new and deadly weapons systems such as high speed hypersonic missiles are developed locity, not to mention the increasing militarization of space.
The West has to deal with the emergence of a more resolute China and the return of a more aggressive Russia.
China has become more resolute in recent years. Euphoria of enemies Therefore, the participation, the leadership of the United States, whatever you want to call it, is essential even to start dealing with the underlying issues involved.
All of this poses huge problems for the incoming Biden administration.
Washington’s enemies are euphoric after the assault on the Capitol.
The new president comes to power with China’s economy already recovering from the pandemic, while the United States’ response to covid is failing severely with massive death rates and uncertainty about the effectiveness of lan vaccination.
In fact, the pandemic is an issue that President Trump has largely ignored since his electoral defeat.
No wonder then that Chinese President Xi Jinping is convinced that this crisis has demonstrated the superiority of his system.
Russia may be more of a nuisance than a strategic competitor for Washington, but disinformation and piracy operations that marked the Trump years are something radically new in scale and impact.
Joe Biden will lead an administration in which many of his agencies are using computer systems that have been penetrated by the Russians.
No one knows yet how deep or permanent this intrusion may be.
Even among friends of States United, the trajectory of the new administration is unlikely to be straightforward.
Of course, the new president will be warmly welcomed by Was’s allies hington abroad, especially within the EU and G7 groupings.
Others, such as the Saudis, the Turks and the Israelis, are rapidly triangulating or readjusting their policies, seeking to have a new dialogue with the Biden team.
Some fear that Biden will provide only a four-year hiatus, after which a new form of Trumpism could return to power. But let’s not expect the honeymoon of the new US administration to last long.
Divisions within the Atlantic alliance, for example, can be disguised fairly quickly.
But Biden will make demands on his European partners just as the Trump administration did. .
He will also want more defense spending and, in addition, concerted and tough policies towards Iran, China and Russia.
Creating these new policy coalitions will not be as easy as it might seem at first glance.
You have to look at the recent investment treaty between the European Union and Beijing, something that many in Biden’s incoming team expected him to be delayed.
Is that trade deal really, they ask, the way to respond to China’s crackdown on democracy in Hong Kong, its harassment of the Uighurs or their economic blackmail directed at Australia?
Not exactly an auspicious start.
A four-year hiatus? Political differences, commercial ties and Europe’s own desire for a greater degree of strategic autonomy will complicate relations with Washington.
But beyond this, there is another potent factor contributing to the tension.
It’s all very well that the Biden administration is placing alliance rebuilding near the top of its foreign policy agenda, but many of those allies aren’t sure Trumpism is gone for good.
How Trump was “alone” and why the assault on the Capitol can generate a schism in the Republican Party Vladimir Putin’s Russia could be a major nuisance for Biden. It’s not just shock from the assault on the Capitol.
They fear that Biden will provide only a four-year hiatus, after which a new form of Trumpism could return to power.
Will some of Washington’s allies avoid taking risks, just in case?
This is a moment in which the internal politics of the United States has perhaps become the element most crucial to help guide his focus abroad.
In fact, one could even say that all of Biden’s current policy in the United States is domestic.
This applies to two fundamental criteria.
The importance of rebuilding the “United States brand” The Rebuilding American democracy, to make it a more egalitarian and less feverish society, is essential to rebuilding the “United States brand” abroad.
Only if its allies (and enemies) make sure that the US is really back on a different and consistent path, they will have confidence in Washington’s leadership for the future.
But this centrality of domestic politics works both ways.
If President-elect Biden wants to succeed in The foreigner, needs to win over his divided country to gain support for his foreign policy.
Take China for example. Biden wants to both compete and cooperate with Beijing whenever possible.
Trade policy here is almost more important than the traditional currency used in strategy: warships or bases abroad.
And the basis of a successful trade policy towards China can only be one that ordinary Americans consider serves their interests, returns jobs and a level playing field in international trade.
Restoring the state of the union may be the single most important factor in supporting any successes Biden achieves abroad.
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