Friday, November 22

The countries that would lose 50 percent of their population in the coming years due to an unexpected global demographic decline


Contraceptives and increased education for women are factors that will influence the decline in population

Los países que perderían al 50 por ciento de su población en los próximos años debido a una caída demográfica mundial inesperada
The population will decrease in the next 80 years.

Photo: Unsplash

The most recent statistics of the indicates that currently almost 7, 600 millions of people we share this world. In general, the trend of population growth has been on the rise for many decades ; for example in 1950 there were about 2, 600 millions of people in the world according to the United Nations. But scientists have observed that this trend will reverse in the coming years.

In fact, Some countries would lose to 50 percent of its population in the coming years due to an unexpected global demographic decline .

An investigation of the Institute of Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME, for its acronym in English) of the University of Washington anticipates that in 40 years the world population will reach a maximum of 9, 700 million people, but will gradually decrease to 8, 800 million for the year 2100 .

The implications of this decline that will challenge the Historical population trends are many, from difficulties in keeping economies active to geopolitical and environmental changes . For example, for 2035, in just 14 years, experts anticipate that China will become the world’s largest economy, but after 2050 its population growth will decrease until it reaches a 51 percent less.

Research published in The Lancet predicts that some countries would lose up to half of their current population in the next 80 years, particularly Spain, Italy, Portugal, Japan and South Korea , which would imply important challenges in their economies, such as a reduction in the workforce and an increase in their pension system.

“Our findings suggest that Continued trends in female educational attainment and access to contraception will accelerate declining fertility and slow population growth ”, write the authors.

Why is it not convenient to reduce the population so much?

Although a decrease in the world population could have “positive implications for the environment, climate change and food production ”, the effects on the economy can be“ negative for the labor force, economic growth and social support systems in the parts of the world with the greatest fertility declines. ”

The IHME experts assure that the population reduction implies “Economic, fiscal and geopolitical risks” that some nations are already anticipating. For example, “ geopolitical power is also linked to military might and, for now at least, armies require individuals to serve in them. ”, they write.

In parallel, researchers suggest that countries with lower fertility rates have four options: “create an enabling environment for women to have children and pursue their careers ; restrict access to reproductive health services; increase participation in the labor force, especially in older ages; and promote immigration. ”

That is why if nations like Canada, Australia and the United States manage to maintain “their long-term working-age population through migration, they would do well” .

“Policy options for adapt to low fertility continues, while maintaining and improving female reproductive health, will be crucial in the years to come , ”conclude the authors of the research funded by the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation.