The images of an angry mob forcibly breaking into the United States Capitol while its parliamentarians hid in terror within it used to be considered material for a Hollywood science fiction film.
However, after the assault on the Legislative headquarters this Wednesday carried out by thousands of followers of President Donald Trump, those scenes ceased to be a fantasy to become the most obvious symbol of the severe political crisis in which the country is immersed, which for decades has boasted of being a “beacon of freedom” and the most consolidated democracy in the world.
The shock has been so great that has managed to bring together the main leaders of the two great parties -Republican and Democrat- in their unanimous condemnation of these violent events; a real novelty after four years of constant disagreements forged in the heat of political polarization.
That gap was reaching unusual levels after Trump’s decision to question without providing evidence the results of the 3 presidential elections November – in which Joe Biden was the winner -, a work in which he had the tacit support of a large part of the Republican leadership that for weeks avoided recognizing the triumph of the Democratic candidate.
The Biden’s victory was certified this Thursday by Congress.
But now, after thousands of Trump supporters stormed Congress heeding the call From the president to “stop the theft of the elections”, the United States is mired in a crisis that does not seem to be solved with a simple condemnation of violence.
This is especially so due to that the original root of this event remains unchanged: Trump continues to maintain that there was fraud in the elections and his followers continue to believe him.
These are three possible scenarios about the course that events may take in the United States.
1. Dismissal for impeachment or application of the amendment 25 This Wednesday, numerous voices -republican and Democrats – rose to hold Trump accountable for what happened and to question, in addition, that even when he called on the protesters who stormed Congress to stop the violence, he continued to fuel the idea that electoral fraud had occurred.
Numerous voices – Republicans and Democrats – rose up to hold Trump accountable for what happened on Wednesday. “Lies have consequences. This violence was the ugly and inevitable result of the president’s addiction to constantly feeding the division, “said Republican Senator Ben Sasse after the riots.
Democratic Congresswoman Ilhan Omar indicated that Trump should be subdued to a impeachment process and announced that he was drafting an accusation against the president to submit him to this process.
How was the chaotic “day of infamy” that the US lived with the violent assault on the Capitol by Trump supporters “We cannot allow you to remain in your position. It is a question of preserving our republic and we have to fulfill our oath ”, he pointed out.
At the end of 2019 and beginnings of 2020, Democrats promoted a trial politician against Trump, who passed that process thanks to the vote of the Republican majority in the Senate.
Impeachment requires that a simple majority of the House of Representatives vote in favor of the filing of charges against Trump and then be convicted by a Two-thirds majority in the Senate.
The US Constitution establishes that a president “shall be removed from office if he is accused in impeachment and convicted of treason , bribery, or other crimes or serious crimes. ”
Frank Bowman, professor of Constitutional Law at the University of Missouri, explained to Reuters that it could be to argue that Trump encouraged or sedition , but that he also could be prosecuted for other more generic accusations such as ” disloyalty to the Constitution ” or having failed to fulfill the responsibilities of his position.
Another formula that would prevent Trump from remaining in power until the end of his term next 20 January would be the implementation of the Amendment 73 of the Constitution.
This provision was established in the decade of 1960, then of the death of John F. Kennedy, to regulate the presidential succession in the event that the president is unable to hold office.
Congressmen and Capitol staff took refuge in their offices Barricades were improvised to protect themselves during the assault. This rule contemplates a scenario in which the agent is not able to fulfill his duty but does not want to resign.
Faced with this scenario, the vice president and a majority of the cabinet can declare that the president cannot exercise his position and, thus, remove him.
“This was a self-coup attempt incited by Trump” However, Trump could object to his removal. In that case, the vice president and the cabinet could leave him in power or insist on his removal, which would force the case to go to Congress, where approval requires the affirmative vote of two thirds of both houses.
2. Split in the Republican Party The current crisis has profound implications for the Republican Party, under Trump’s leadership since 2016.
During the campaign for the presidential primaries at that time, Trump was questioned and rejected by an important part of the traditional leadership of that party.
However, after becoming president and, in addition, as the leader with the greatest popular traction in that party, Trump managed to make those who previously opposed him become his allies, if only to guarantee their political survival.
Now, the Tycoon will leave the White House but will continue to have a strong and very loyal base, such as the one that was mobilized this Wednesday during the demonstration in his favor in Washington DC.
Upon leaving office, Trump will continue to have a base f Strong and very loyal, like the one that mobilized this Wednesday during the demonstration in his favor in Washington DC. The events of that day, however, seem to have accelerated a process that will force Republican leaders to decide what they will do before Trump.
Harvard University governance professor Steven Levitsky believes that the Republican Party is on the verge of a severe divide.
“I think several things could happen: one, that the Republican Party finally unites and expels Trump, so that he ends up isolated, along with his allies like (Rudy) Giuliani and the people he gave forgiveness to. And that Mitch McConnell, Marco Rubio and even Ted Cruz end up abandoning Trump, “said Levitsky in conversation with BBC Mundo.
” The other thing that can happen is that the party divides, breaks, as it seemed it was going to happen this Wednesday. I am not talking about a formal split, but rather a conformation in which there is one wing of the party that is still strongly aligned with Trump and another wing that is trying to move beyond Trump. And if the Republicans are divided, this will strengthen Biden, “he added.
This Wednesday, there were many Republican leaders who marked a distance with Trump, but it is not clear if it was a momentary turnaround , forced by circumstances, or something more permanent.
“One of the darkest days of US history ”: condemnation of congressmen for the assault on the Capitol by Trump supporters In any case, Trump’s refusal to acknowledge the results of the November presidential elections and his questioning of the reliability of the electoral system is something that -according to some analysts- has already hurt Republicans by discouraging participation in the Senate elections on January 5, in which that party was gambling for control of the Upper House.
3. Biden presides over a country in crisis that partially does not recognize him In case Trump manages to win the pulse for the soul of the Republican Party or if he opts for Set up a separate store while preserving the favor of its numerous followers, the new Joe Biden government will have to face the serious challenge of ruling over a territory in which a significant part of the population does not recognize its authority or legitimacy.
Biden will inaugurate the era of the “asterisk presidency”, characterized by the fact that the occupant of the White House will not be recognized by half of the citizens, says the consultancy Eurasia Group. The consulting firm Eurasia Group referred to this situation when it recently presented as the main geopolitical risk of 2021 the fact that Biden will inaugurate the era of the “asterisk presidency” , characterized by the fact that the occupant of the White House will not be recognized by half of the citizens.
“It’s not a protest, it’s an insurrection”: Biden’s strong message after that Trump supporters stormed the Capitol “While a significant part of Trump’s voters remain loyal to him, he will cast a long shadow, prompting Republican leaders to support him to avoid losing their grassroots backing. For them, Biden will be #Noesmipresidente and they will consider him illegitimate ”, Eurasia points out in its analysis.
This situation would be quite difficult in itself normal times, but it looks even more serious at times when the United States is going through a serious health and economic crisis that requires not only the joint work of the two main political parties but also the Active collaboration of citizens.
At the end of the day, two of the central elements in the fight against the coronavirus pandemic are the use of masks and the massive and voluntary vaccination of citizens, two elements for which it is not clear that the Biden government will be able to count on the support of an important part of Trump’s most loyal bases.
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