Coronavirus: Why the situation in the UK worries the rest of Europe

Faced with an explosion contamination figures for coronavirus and hospitalizations, Boris Johnson had no other choice this Monday evening than to announce the total reconfinement – schools included – of England , a few hours after soon as Scotland announces its own containment .

The British variant, but not only

How could such figures be achieved? There is of course the obvious culprit, the British variant of the coronavirus , which would be between 50 and 59% more contagious than the lambda version of the Covid – 19. While he does not exclude the influence that the variant may have had, Antoine Flahault, epidemiologist and director of the Institute of Global Health at the Faculty of Medicine of the University of Geneva, recalls that this is a common mistake to all epidemics to attribute everything to mutations.

Far from resonating only with this variant, the epidemiologist notes that the R (the rate of reproduction of the virus, namely the number number of people infected on average by a sick person) was 1.2 in England since the start of December, and has never fallen since. “An R that remains at 1.2 for several weeks without the government taking radical measures, this can only lead to a catastrophic situation”, he supports.

The British Government Too Inactive

Michaël Rochoy, general practitioner, researcher in epidemiology and member of the collective “On the side of science”, recalls the bases of an exponential: “The more we are bad, the more we are bad. The situation is only getting worse and worse and faster and stronger. As soon as the R was above 1 for more than a few days, England should have acted drastically. Do not wait until January. »

And this R greater than 1 initial, would it not be due to this famous British variant ? Again, that was certainly not the only explanation. Antoine Flahault thus recalls that the restaurants and bars were reopened (those in London were closed three weeks ago due to the surge in cases), while Michaël Rochoy notes that the mask was not compulsory at school.

Despite the wrongs of the British government, many fear an Italian-style scenario: in February-March, La Botte was mocked for its inability to manage the virus, before all Europe did not experience the first wave a few weeks later. Is what is happening in England the premise of what will hit mainland Europe in January?

If not ruled out, this hypothesis is far away to be assured for Antoine Flahault. Another story of R: “If England has had an R of 1.2 for several weeks, most countries in continental Europe have an R a little lower than 1. There is therefore a tendency to master the epidemic, in any case to its stabilization, and not to the surge. “The epidemiologist divides Europe into two trends: on the one hand, an epidemic outbreak, noted in the United Kingdom, in Ireland (with an R approximately at 1, 33), but also in Spain and Portugal, and on the other hand a weakly controlled epidemic in Belgium ( R to 0, 86), Germany, Denmark, the Netherlands. Even if a third wave is possible, the trend remains much better in these countries than in England.

France in a fragile balance

One country remains on a ridge line: France. “With an R around 1, sometimes a little below, sometimes a little above, France can still place itself in countries which are in control of the epidemic, but its case can worsen at any time,” notes Antoine Flahault. Even if some English mistakes are not made: restaurants and bars are closed, a curfew is in place, wearing a mask is compulsory at school.

“By wanting to lifting too many levers at once, the British have lost control of the epidemic. France is keeping several important measures. But if the epidemic flares up, and it can do so at any time given the high R, that will probably not be enough ”, estimates Antoine Flahault.

And that’s good there the real concern for Michaël Rochoy, the reasons for a spark are not lacking. Let us quickly list the return of children to school after two weeks of vacation which could act as a brake on the virus – as was the case during All Saints’ Day for example -, family gatherings during of the holidays , or the fact that around ten cases of the British variant have been identified in France. For the doctor, “it suffices to see that this Tuesday, Elisabeth Borne softens the telework protocol and allows a return in person to say that France is not out of the woods. »Caution is therefore required.