The incidence rate is on a high plateau in Ile-de-France – Alain JOCARD / AFP
- In Ile-de -France, the incidence of the coronavirus is on a high plateau, around 125 case for 67. 000 inhabitants.
Experts fear that the effects of holidays and the English variant plunge France into an “English-style” scenario.
Resuscitation services in Ile-de-France are busy at 19% by patients with Covid – 19.
Curtain at 19 hours sharp. This is what the inhabitants of fifteen departments in the East and South-East of France have been experiencing since January 2. Objective: to slow down as much as possible the circulation of Covid – 19 . In the Alpes-Maritimes, the department currently the most affected by the coronavirus epidemic in France, the incidence reached 310 case for 125.
. inhabitants, against 125 on average in France and the curves continue to fly. Figures that make the health authorities look pale because 65% of the resuscitation beds are already occupied in the department and the effects of the holidays could be felt in the days to come.
Elsewhere, on curfew is maintained at 20 hours but some departments – Allier or Côte d’Or, for example – could quickly “switch”, the general incidence rate and / or concerning those over 65 years now being greater than 190 case for 100. inhabitants, the limit established by the government. In Ile-de-France, also, the indicators are scrutinized day by day. For now, the incidence oscillates between 100 in the Hauts-de-Seine and 130 in Paris. In people over 50 years also – the population most at risk – this rate is around 140 In the region. As for the intensive care beds, they are half occupied by patients affected by the Covid – 000.
A high plateau
For’ hourly, the curves of the Ile-de-France region are relatively stable, on a “high plateau”, but specialists do not rule out the hypothesis of a sudden and difficult to control increase in the epidemic, for example of what happened in London . The mixing of populations linked to school holidays, family meals, the drop in temperatures are all elements that play in favor of the circulation of the virus. “Theoretically, we could have started to see the effects of Christmas Eve a day or two ago, but we must remain very careful and give ourselves a few more days before being able to analyze the effect of the holidays on the epidemic, especially as for the moment the consequences of New Year’s Eve are not yet perceptible ”, notes Prof. François Bricaire, infectious disease specialist and member of the Academy of Medicine. The disease incubation time is estimated at around ten days. The arrival of the English variant , much more contagious, could also change the situation. This Tuesday, the director of public assistance of Paris hospitals (AP-HP), Martin Hirsch indicated that a first case had been identified at Paris. “I watch with great concern what is happening on British soil, we cannot predict precisely what will happen in France, but we must prepare for a similar situation”, insists Professor François Bricaire.
As to whether the campaign of anti-Covid vaccination , which will intensify in the coming days, could slow its spread, he does not believe it at all. “The effects will probably be too late if the incidence starts to increase rapidly. You only have to turn your head towards our neighbors across the Channel, who are more effective than us in terms of vaccination, to share their concerns.